tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 5128 at 16:09, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 5128 American flown by PSA Flight history → TUL 16:09 DCA 19:56 19% 5% 1.2% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m Denver DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789 7h 59m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:04 → DFW 07:36AA 1090 1h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:49 → DCA 13:05AA 1151 6h 01m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa 3h 09m Houston IAH 11:55 → DCA 16:03UA 654 8h 03m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa 1h 08m Houston IAH 07:51 → DCA 12:10UA 512 6h 10m 96% 87%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:35 → ORD 08:48AA 3590 · flown by Envoy 1h 33m Chicago ORD 10:21 → DCA 13:27AA 523 5h 52m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → TUL 09:00 → IAH 10:47UA 4007 · flown by Mesa 3h 33m Houston IAH 14:20 → DCA 18:31UA 625 8h 31m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 11:13 → DCA 12:55DL 1961 5h 55m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950 7h 33m 100% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON