Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 5667 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–14%.

Safest bet that day UA 5667 TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 5914 TUL 17:10 → DEN 18:10 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5667 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 06:00	DEN 07:00	4%	2%	0.6%	94%
WN 4902 Southwest	TUL 07:28	DEN 08:16	4%	1%	0.4%	no record
UA 1435 United	TUL 08:48	DEN 09:49	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 5276 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 11:44	DEN 12:44	6%	3%	0.6%	85%
WN 1226 Southwest	TUL 18:20	DEN 19:01	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 5914 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 17:10	DEN 18:10	14%	3%	0.6%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON