Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: MQ 3821 at 05:03 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–20%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3821 TUL 05:03 → DFW 06:22 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2830 TUL 18:19 → DFW 19:34 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3821 Envoy	TUL 05:03	DFW 06:22	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1090 American Flight history →	TUL 05:57	DFW 07:31	5%	3%	0.8%	91%
AA 2352 American Flight history →	TUL 12:37	DFW 14:03	11%	5%	0.8%	83%
AA 3095 American Flight history →	TUL 07:47	DFW 09:12	11%	3%	0.8%	75%
AA 2348 American Flight history →	TUL 10:40	DFW 11:50	12%	4%	0.8%	80%
AA 2851 American Flight history →	TUL 17:06	DFW 18:22	19%	5%	0.8%	70%
AA 2830 American	TUL 18:19	DFW 19:34	20%	5%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON