Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4690 TUL 06:02 → LGA 10:32 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 4605 TUL 14:03 → LGA 18:29 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4690 Republic	TUL 06:02	LGA 10:32	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
YX 4389 Republic	TUL 06:04	LGA 10:20	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
DL 4631 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	TUL 06:59	LGA 11:07	14%	3%	0.8%	68%
YX 4605 Republic	TUL 14:03	LGA 18:29	15%	3%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON