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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Orlando on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 1h 10m Denver DEN 08:10 → MCO 13:57UA 2292 6h 57m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 12:06 → MCO 13:36DL 1562 6h 36m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:06 → DFW 07:38AA 1090 3h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:57 → MCO 14:39AA 1606 7h 33m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:35 → ORD 08:48AA 3590 · flown by Envoy 2h 13m Chicago ORD 11:01 → MCO 14:45AA 1661 7h 10m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → TUL 07:00 → CLT 10:30AA 1729 3h 15m Charlotte CLT 13:45 → MCO 15:28AA 1062 7h 28m 96% 76%
AmericanDetails → TUL 07:47 → DFW 09:12AA 3095 1h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:00 → MCO 14:43AA 2151 5h 56m 93% 73%
DeltaDetails → TUL 12:41 → ATL 15:45DL 2620 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → MCO 19:48DL 2035 6h 07m 97% 71%
DeltaDetails → TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 15:00 → MCO 16:40DL 1150 5h 36m 99% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON