Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4207 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 2–12%.

Safest bet that day WN 4207 TUL 05:10 → MDW 07:05 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3285 TUL 16:14 → MDW 18:02 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4207 Southwest	TUL 05:10	MDW 07:05	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3967 Southwest	TUL 05:48	MDW 07:38	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1568 Southwest	TUL 15:00	MDW 16:55	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3285 Southwest	TUL 16:14	MDW 18:02	12%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON