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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 6h 02m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 2h 45m Denver DEN 09:45 → MIA 15:43UA 1418 8h 43m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:35 → ORD 08:48AA 3590 · flown by Envoy 1h 12m Chicago ORD 10:00 → MIA 14:11AA 2689 6h 36m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa 1h 09m Houston IAH 07:52 → MIA 11:22UA 2753 5h 22m 96% 86%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:04 → DFW 07:36AA 1090 2h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:20 → MIA 14:29AA 1454 7h 25m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → TUL 07:00 → CLT 10:30AA 1729 3h 04m Charlotte CLT 13:34 → MIA 15:41AA 1198 7h 41m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa 3h 14m Houston IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410 7h 47m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386 5h 51m 99% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON