Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 5–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2063 TUL 05:50 → ORD 07:53 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5478 TUL 18:13 → ORD 20:20 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2063 United	TUL 05:50	ORD 07:53	5%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3590 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 06:35	ORD 08:48	6%	2%	0.7%	85%
OO 5442 SkyWest	TUL 09:50	ORD 11:48	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4155 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 10:49	ORD 13:00	8%	2%	0.7%	83%
AA 4057 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 19:23	ORD 21:20	14%	3%	0.8%	50%
MQ 4098 Envoy	TUL 16:03	ORD 18:03	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 5478 SkyWest	TUL 18:13	ORD 20:20	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 4483 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	TUL 18:20	ORD 20:30	29%	10%	5.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON