Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 5–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 745 TUL 07:10 → PHX 07:46 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3434 TUL 08:52 → PHX 09:56 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 745 Southwest	TUL 07:10	PHX 07:46	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1155 Southwest	TUL 10:28	PHX 11:06	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 3434 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 08:52	PHX 09:56	7%	2%	0.6%	93%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON