tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, QX 2400 at 19:15, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
QX 2400 Horizon TUL 19:15 SEA 21:24 16% 4% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481 8h 45m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 10h 50m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → TUL 11:44 → DEN 12:44UA 5276 · flown by SkyWest 3h 14m Denver DEN 15:58 → SEA 17:59UA 2013 8h 15m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → TUL 12:41 → ATL 15:45DL 2620 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 17:50 → SEA 20:11DL 714 9h 30m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → TUL 07:00 → CLT 10:30AA 1729 2h 05m Charlotte CLT 12:35 → SEA 15:18AA 506 10h 18m 96% 81%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:35 → ORD 08:48AA 3590 · flown by Envoy 2h 54m Chicago ORD 11:42 → SEA 14:26AA 1476 9h 51m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest 3h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 13:20 → SEA 14:35DL 2921 8h 35m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 2h 38m Denver DEN 09:38 → SEA 11:25UA 1253 7h 25m 99% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON