Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 4006 at 08:00, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 4006 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 08:00	SLC 09:55	3%	2%	0.5%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	8h 50m	98%	91%
United Details →	TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa	3h 11m Houston	IAH 09:54 → SLC 12:27UA 2242	8h 27m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	8h 14m	100%	90%
United Details →	TUL 17:10 → DEN 18:10UA 5914 · flown by SkyWest	2h 55m Denver	DEN 21:05 → SLC 22:44UA 5646 · flown by SkyWest	6h 34m	98%	90%
United Details →	TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Denver	DEN 08:00 → SLC 09:37UA 497	4h 37m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	TUL 12:41 → ATL 15:45DL 2620	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653	8h 21m	98%	88%
American Details →	TUL 05:57 → DFW 07:31AA 1090	1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:45 → SLC 10:33AA 1878	5h 36m	97%	85%
American Details →	TUL 06:35 → ORD 08:48AA 3590 · flown by Envoy	1h 16m Chicago	ORD 10:04 → SLC 12:31AA 3258	6h 56m	97%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON