Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:59 am at Tucson); 1 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 937 at 13:20, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 937 Delta Flight history →	TUS 13:20	ATL 19:48	11%	3%	0.1%	87%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 3 h ahead of Tucson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TUS 11:16 → SLC 14:13DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest	3h 42m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:55 → ATL 23:58DL 905	9h 42m	98%	86%
American Details →	TUS 13:18 → DFW 17:50AA 2926	3h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:10 → ATL 00:19 +1AA 2749	8h 01m	96%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON