Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 3–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3969 TUS 07:00 → DEN 09:56 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2089 TUS 13:32 → DEN 16:36 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3969 Southwest	TUS 07:00	DEN 09:56	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1540 United	TUS 05:09	DEN 08:15	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2406 Southwest	TUS 11:01	DEN 13:51	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1656 United	TUS 09:39	DEN 12:44	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2745 Southwest	TUS 14:04	DEN 16:52	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2089 United	TUS 13:32	DEN 16:36	12%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON