Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 315 at 05:49, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 315 TUS 05:49 → IAH 10:16 · 3% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 3% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 3% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 315 United	TUS 05:49	IAH 10:16	3%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 4042 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	TUS 06:37	IAH 11:13	5%	0%	0.0%	95%
UA 4045 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	TUS 10:55	IAH 15:29	22%	11%	0.0%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON