Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 6393 TUS 06:02 → LAX 07:46 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest OO 6292 TUS 18:13 → LAX 19:55 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6393 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 06:02	LAX 07:46	5%	3%	0.6%	88%
OO 6296 SkyWest	TUS 10:39	LAX 12:24	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 381 Southwest	TUS 09:14	LAX 10:50	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3502 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 07:49	LAX 09:32	8%	3%	0.6%	94%
OO 3904 SkyWest	TUS 16:28	LAX 18:12	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 3906 SkyWest	TUS 16:37	LAX 18:21	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 6292 SkyWest	TUS 18:13	LAX 19:55	10%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON