tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: OO 5575 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 5575 SkyWest TUS 06:40 ORD 12:17 6% 4% 0.6% no record
AA 2537 American Flight history → TUS 17:28 ORD 23:19 20% 6% 0.7% 66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Tucson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TUS 11:53 → SEA 15:23DL 3679 · flown by SkyWest 2h 17m Seattle SEA 17:40 → ORD 23:38DL 2108 9h 45m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → TUS 13:49 → ATL 20:45DL 937 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199 8h 04m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → TUS 13:15 → SFO 15:42UA 5583 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m San Francisco SFO 18:44 → ORD 00:58 +1UA 1958 9h 43m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → TUS 06:02 → LAX 07:46AA 6393 · flown by SkyWest 1h 52m Los Angeles LAX 09:38 → ORD 15:49AA 2998 7h 47m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → TUS 11:16 → SLC 14:13DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest 3h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 17:21 → ORD 21:29DL 2413 8h 13m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → TUS 05:01 → DFW 09:27AA 2193 3h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:10 → ORD 15:51AA 2988 8h 50m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → TUS 06:00 → ATL 12:38DL 886 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738 9h 12m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → TUS 11:53 → PHX 12:53AA 6514 · flown by SkyWest 3h 40m Phoenix PHX 16:33 → ORD 22:07AA 695 8h 14m 99% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON