Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2019 at 06:08 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 2019 TUS 06:08 → PHX 07:03 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3257 TUS 17:25 → PHX 18:32 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2019 Southwest	TUS 06:08	PHX 07:03	4%	1%	0.2%	no record
AA 3958 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUS 09:17	PHX 10:27	8%	3%	0.7%	91%
WN 4441 Southwest	TUS 08:29	PHX 09:40	8%	2%	0.4%	no record
MQ 3649 Envoy	TUS 08:42	PHX 09:50	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 6186 SkyWest	TUS 07:03	PHX 08:13	11%	6%	0.2%	no record
AA 3319 American	TUS 11:59	PHX 13:03	11%	3%	1.3%	no record
OO 6294 SkyWest	TUS 15:10	PHX 16:12	11%	4%	0.5%	no record
OO 4888 SkyWest	TUS 07:17	PHX 08:29	11%	6%	0.2%	no record
AA 1559 American	TUS 10:28	PHX 11:26	12%	4%	1.3%	no record
AA 6514 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 14:31	PHX 15:41	13%	5%	0.5%	90%
AA 6207 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 17:16	PHX 18:19	14%	5%	0.5%	70%
OO 6332 SkyWest	TUS 14:08	PHX 15:06	15%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 1949 Southwest	TUS 16:10	PHX 17:04	15%	4%	0.4%	no record
WN 1822 Southwest	TUS 16:33	PHX 17:33	15%	4%	0.4%	no record
AA 3257 American	TUS 17:25	PHX 18:32	22%	6%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON