tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1492 Southwest TUS 06:15 SAN 07:38 5% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1427 Southwest TUS 09:34 SAN 10:59 10% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TUS 07:05 → SLC 10:07DL 3745 · flown by SkyWest 1h 03m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 5h 03m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → TUS 11:16 → SLC 14:13DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → SAN 18:06DL 1252 6h 50m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → TUS 05:01 → DFW 09:27AA 2193 1h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:56 → SAN 12:19AA 3109 7h 18m 97% 82%
AlaskaDetails → TUS 10:31 → PDX 13:46AS 2216 · flown by Horizon 1h 09m Portland PDX 14:55 → SAN 17:29AS 1312 6h 58m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → TUS 09:17 → PHX 10:27AA 3958 · flown by Envoy 3h 32m Phoenix PHX 13:59 → SAN 15:19AA 1951 6h 02m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → TUS 13:15 → SFO 15:42UA 5583 · flown by SkyWest 3h 15m San Francisco SFO 18:57 → SAN 20:41UA 1577 7h 26m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → TUS 06:52 → SFO 09:35UA 4683 · flown by SkyWest 2h 46m San Francisco SFO 12:21 → SAN 14:08UA 1257 7h 16m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → TUS 06:37 → IAH 11:13UA 4042 · flown by Mesa 47m Houston IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399 6h 44m 84% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON