Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 3679 at 11:53 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 3679 TUS 11:53 → SEA 15:23 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 767 TUS 07:21 → SEA 10:34 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3679 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 11:53	SEA 15:23	11%	5%	0.5%	88%
OO 3159 SkyWest	TUS 07:01	SEA 11:01	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 641 Alaska Flight history →	TUS 14:29	SEA 17:44	18%	3%	0.6%	81%
AS 767 Alaska Flight history →	TUS 07:21	SEA 10:34	22%	3%	0.7%	94%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON