Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 5583 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 13:15	SFO 15:42	18%	6%	0.5%	76%
UA 4683 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 06:52	SFO 09:35	19%	10%	0.6%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TUS 06:37 → IAH 11:13UA 4042 · flown by Mesa	1h 30m Houston	IAH 12:43 → SFO 15:01UA 2611	8h 24m	97%	85%
Alaska Details →	TUS 10:31 → PDX 13:46AS 2216 · flown by Horizon	1h 03m Portland	PDX 14:49 → SFO 16:40AS 236	6h 09m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	TUS 11:16 → SLC 14:13DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest	57m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → SFO 16:12DL 1088	4h 56m	97%	83%
American Details →	TUS 09:17 → PHX 10:27AA 3958 · flown by Envoy	1h 43m Phoenix	PHX 12:10 → SFO 14:17AA 3199	5h 00m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	TUS 07:05 → SLC 10:07DL 3745 · flown by SkyWest	53m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902	4h 58m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	TUS 11:53 → SEA 15:23DL 3679 · flown by SkyWest	2h 27m Seattle	SEA 17:50 → SFO 20:16DL 3991 · flown by SkyWest	8h 23m	98%	80%
American Details →	TUS 06:53 → DFW 11:11AA 2555	2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:11 → SFO 14:52AA 2325	7h 59m	94%	78%
Delta Details →	TUS 07:49 → LAX 09:32DL 3502 · flown by SkyWest	2h 37m Los Angeles	LAX 12:09 → SFO 13:32DL 689	5h 43m	98%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	TUS 14:29 → SEA 17:44AS 641	52m Seattle	SEA 18:36 → SFO 20:48AS 619	6h 19m	72%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON