Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 2–5% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3745 TUS 07:05 → SLC 10:07 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest OO 3822 TUS 16:24 → SLC 19:23 · 5% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 4% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 3% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3745 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 07:05	SLC 10:07	2%	2%	0.4%	98%
DL 3718 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 11:16	SLC 14:13	3%	2%	0.4%	97%
OO 4618 SkyWest	TUS 21:11	SLC 00:15	5%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 3822 SkyWest	TUS 16:24	SLC 19:23	5%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON