Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Atlanta on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	2h 33m Detroit	DTW 10:25 → ATL 12:19DL 2856	5h 34m	99%	91%
United Details →	TVC 08:33 → ORD 08:55UA 3713 · flown by Republic	1h 34m Chicago	ORD 10:29 → ATL 13:44UA 2684	5h 11m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	TVC 13:36 → MSP 14:14DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	3h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:05DL 1036	7h 29m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	TVC 12:15 → DTW 13:25DL 3976 · flown by SkyWest	3h 25m Detroit	DTW 16:50 → ATL 18:55DL 1467	6h 40m	99%	89%
American Details →	TVC 14:42 → ORD 14:51AA 4307 · flown by Envoy	1h 38m Chicago	ORD 16:29 → ATL 19:42AA 2096	5h 00m	100%	83%
United Details →	TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306	1h 21m Denver	DEN 17:48 → ATL 22:57UA 1305	7h 29m	93%	78%
American Details →	TVC 13:58 → CLT 16:09AA 5575 · flown by PSA	59m Charlotte	CLT 17:08 → ATL 18:28AA 5067 · flown by PSA	4h 30m	88%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON