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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Boston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292 2h 13m Detroit DTW 10:05 → BOS 12:00DL 2648 5h 15m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → TVC 10:25 → DTW 11:36DL 4721 · flown by Endeavor 2h 25m Detroit DTW 14:01 → BOS 16:09DL 1171 5h 44m 100% 92%
UnitedDetails → TVC 08:46 → ORD 09:14UA 3713 · flown by Republic 1h 16m Chicago ORD 10:30 → BOS 14:07UA 1606 5h 21m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → TVC 13:36 → MSP 14:14DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest 3h 56m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → BOS 22:01DL 1502 8h 25m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306 1h 13m Denver DEN 17:40 → BOS 23:44UA 1356 8h 16m 90% 75%
UnitedDetails → TVC 12:15 → ORD 12:45UA 4562 · flown by GoJet 3h 13m Chicago ORD 15:58 → BOS 19:31UA 1928 7h 16m 95% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → TVC 18:35 → MSP 19:14DL 4915 · flown by Endeavor 55m Minneapolis MSP 20:09 → BOS 23:55DL 2614 5h 20m 55% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON