Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OH 5041 PSA	TVC 13:27	CLT 15:28	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 5575 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TVC 14:05	CLT 16:15	10%	3%	0.8%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	2h 45m Detroit	DTW 10:37 → CLT 12:24DL 2684	5h 39m	99%	93%
United Details →	TVC 08:32 → ORD 08:58UA 3713 · flown by Republic	1h 28m Chicago	ORD 10:26 → CLT 13:50UA 3450 · flown by Republic	5h 18m	99%	92%
American Details →	TVC 14:43 → ORD 14:54AA 4307 · flown by Envoy	3h 53m Chicago	ORD 18:47 → CLT 21:59AA 689	7h 16m	100%	80%
United Details →	TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306	1h 18m Denver	DEN 17:45 → CLT 23:08UA 616	7h 40m	92%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON