Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, YX 4400 at 13:48, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


YX 4400 Republic	TVC 13:48	DCA 15:35	10%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TVC 08:32 → ORD 08:58UA 3713 · flown by Republic	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 10:19 → DCA 13:30UA 1904	4h 58m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	2h 08m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476	4h 43m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	TVC 12:16 → DTW 13:26DL 3976 · flown by SkyWest	3h 52m Detroit	DTW 17:18 → DCA 18:59DL 2030	6h 43m	99%	83%
American Details →	TVC 14:43 → ORD 14:54AA 4307 · flown by Envoy	3h 06m Chicago	ORD 18:00 → DCA 21:20AA 489	6h 37m	100%	81%
American Details →	TVC 14:05 → CLT 16:15AA 5575 · flown by PSA	2h 25m Charlotte	CLT 18:40 → DCA 20:32AA 527	6h 27m	100%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON