tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 1306 at 15:28, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1306 United Flight history → TVC 15:28 DEN 16:27 13% 3% 0.6% 70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Traverse City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TVC 08:31 → ORD 08:57UA 3713 · flown by Republic 2h 17m Chicago ORD 11:14 → DEN 13:04UA 2857 6h 33m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → TVC 06:09 → DTW 07:15DL 2292 1h 25m Detroit DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113 5h 38m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → TVC 12:16 → DTW 13:26DL 3976 · flown by SkyWest 2h 55m Detroit DTW 16:21 → DEN 17:27DL 2431 7h 11m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → TVC 20:14 → ORD 20:36AA 6293 · flown by SkyWest 2h 19m Chicago ORD 22:55 → DEN 00:38 +1AA 2001 6h 24m 100% 78%
AmericanDetails → TVC 14:43 → ORD 14:54AA 4307 · flown by Envoy 4h 00m Chicago ORD 18:54 → DEN 20:39AA 1387 7h 56m 100% 75%
AmericanDetails → TVC 14:04 → CLT 16:10AA 5575 · flown by PSA 1h 35m Charlotte CLT 17:45 → DEN 19:12AA 1284 7h 08m 97% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON