Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, MQ 4199 at 16:10, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


MQ 4199 Envoy	TVC 16:10	DFW 17:59	12%	3%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Traverse City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TVC 08:33 → ORD 08:55UA 3713 · flown by Republic	1h 30m Chicago	ORD 10:25 → DFW 13:08UA 441	5h 35m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	TVC 12:15 → DTW 13:25DL 3976 · flown by SkyWest	2h 27m Detroit	DTW 15:52 → DFW 17:27DL 1441	6h 12m	98%	84%
United Details →	TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306	2h 26m Denver	DEN 18:53 → DFW 21:59UA 1565	7h 31m	97%	83%
American Details →	TVC 13:58 → CLT 16:06AA 5575 · flown by PSA	3h 46m Charlotte	CLT 19:52 → DFW 21:44AA 1698	8h 46m	100%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON