Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 2292 at 06:45, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 2292 Delta Flight history →	TVC 06:45	DTW 07:52	6%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 4721 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	TVC 10:25	DTW 11:36	10%	3%	0.0%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TVC 13:36 → MSP 14:14DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	2h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476	5h 23m	97%	89%
United Details →	TVC 08:46 → ORD 09:14UA 3713 · flown by Republic	1h 36m Chicago	ORD 10:50 → DTW 13:27UA 5756 · flown by SkyWest	4h 41m	99%	88%
United Details →	TVC 12:15 → ORD 12:45UA 4562 · flown by GoJet	2h 48m Chicago	ORD 15:33 → DTW 17:55UA 2632	5h 40m	95%	82%
United Details →	TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306	1h 20m Denver	DEN 17:47 → DTW 22:43UA 1220	7h 15m	92%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON