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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via O'Hare, leaving 08:31, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Traverse City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TVC 08:31 → ORD 08:57UA 3713 · flown by Republic 1h 54m Chicago ORD 10:51 → IAH 13:46UA 2767 6h 15m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → TVC 06:09 → DTW 07:15DL 2292 1h 25m Detroit DTW 08:40 → IAH 10:37DL 1043 5h 28m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → TVC 12:16 → DTW 13:26DL 3976 · flown by SkyWest 2h 49m Detroit DTW 16:15 → IAH 18:14DL 1718 6h 58m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306 3h 08m Denver DEN 19:35 → IAH 23:06UA 475 8h 38m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → TVC 20:14 → ORD 20:36AA 6293 · flown by SkyWest 1h 16m Chicago ORD 21:52 → IAH 00:32 +1AA 3144 5h 18m 100% 77%
AmericanDetails → TVC 14:43 → ORD 14:54AA 4307 · flown by Envoy 2h 16m Chicago ORD 17:10 → IAH 19:54AA 2708 6h 11m 100% 67%
AmericanDetails → TVC 14:04 → CLT 16:10AA 5575 · flown by PSA 1h 23m Charlotte CLT 17:33 → IAH 19:22AA 2935 6h 18m 93% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON