Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	2h 13m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → LGA 11:50DL 2589	5h 05m	99%	87%
United Details →	TVC 08:32 → ORD 08:58UA 3713 · flown by Republic	2h 01m Chicago	ORD 10:59 → LGA 14:12UA 529	5h 40m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	TVC 13:36 → MSP 14:14DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 15:30 → LGA 19:18DL 2732	5h 42m	94%	79%
American Details →	TVC 14:43 → ORD 14:54AA 4307 · flown by Envoy	1h 43m Chicago	ORD 16:37 → LGA 19:51AA 673	5h 08m	100%	65%
American Details →	TVC 14:05 → CLT 16:15AA 5575 · flown by PSA	1h 42m Charlotte	CLT 17:57 → LGA 20:00AA 1060	5h 55m	98%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON