tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 3995 at 13:36, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 3995 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → TVC 13:36 MSP 14:14 11% 4% 0.7% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Traverse City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292 1h 08m Detroit DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258 4h 09m 96% 88%
UnitedDetails → TVC 08:33 → ORD 08:55UA 3713 · flown by Republic 1h 57m Chicago ORD 10:52 → MSP 12:31UA 215 4h 58m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → TVC 12:15 → DTW 13:25DL 3976 · flown by SkyWest 2h 55m Detroit DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203 5h 57m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306 1h 38m Denver DEN 18:05 → MSP 21:10UA 2076 6h 42m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → TVC 13:58 → CLT 16:09AA 5575 · flown by PSA 3h 15m Charlotte CLT 19:24 → MSP 21:00AA 2176 8h 02m 100% 80%
AmericanDetails → TVC 14:42 → ORD 14:51AA 4307 · flown by Envoy 1h 36m Chicago ORD 16:27 → MSP 18:07AA 2472 4h 25m 100% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON