tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3973 Southwest TYS 08:03 BWI 09:44 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 4215 Southwest TYS 08:18 BWI 10:16 3% 1% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → BWI 10:47DL 801 5h 07m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → TYS 07:01 → ATL 08:02DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711 6h 00m 96% 89%
DeltaDetails → TYS 07:40 → DTW 09:21DL 5196 · flown by Endeavor 54m Detroit DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546 4h 07m 95% 89%
DeltaDetails → TYS 11:57 → ATL 12:59DL 1743 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → BWI 17:15DL 1267 5h 18m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → TYS 08:17 → CLT 09:47AA 5641 · flown by PSA 2h 38m Charlotte CLT 12:25 → BWI 14:04AA 2733 5h 47m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → TYS 15:54 → ATL 16:53DL 1148 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 19:30 → BWI 21:26DL 1257 5h 32m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → TYS 17:19 → DTW 19:05DL 4697 · flown by Endeavor 53m Detroit DTW 19:58 → BWI 21:39DL 2715 4h 20m 91% 80%
AmericanDetails → TYS 14:30 → DFW 15:52AA 2544 1h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:15 → BWI 21:29AA 2251 6h 59m 90% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON