Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5103 TYS 06:14 → CLT 07:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5584 TYS 17:52 → CLT 19:00 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5103 PSA	TYS 06:14	CLT 07:35	6%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 5641 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TYS 08:17	CLT 09:47	7%	3%	0.8%	82%
OH 5584 PSA	TYS 17:52	CLT 19:00	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 5953 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 13:00	CLT 14:26	10%	5%	0.0%	90%
AA 5950 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 11:03	CLT 12:24	11%	6%	0.0%	89%
AA 5954 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 05:00	CLT 06:23	12%	5%	0.0%	88%
AA 5831 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 16:07	CLT 17:33	29%	9%	0.0%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON