Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:16 am at Knoxville)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 1039 Southwest	TYS 13:48	DAL 15:03	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4216 Southwest	TYS 15:23	DAL 16:37	12%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Knoxville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015	1h 35m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → DAL 09:21DL 441	4h 41m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	TYS 08:53 → ATL 09:55DL 5279 · flown by Endeavor	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 12:57 → DAL 14:15DL 512	6h 22m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	TYS 11:57 → ATL 12:59DL 1743	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	6h 57m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	TYS 18:05 → ATL 19:09DL 2571	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	5h 20m	97%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON