Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5149 TYS 07:00 → DCA 08:50 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest OH 5224 TYS 18:01 → DCA 19:44 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5149 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TYS 07:00	DCA 08:50	10%	5%	0.7%	82%
OH 5109 PSA	TYS 11:03	DCA 12:47	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
OH 5224 PSA	TYS 18:01	DCA 19:44	17%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON