Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 994 TYS 05:37 → DFW 07:06 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2550 TYS 17:20 → DFW 18:46 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 994 American Flight history →	TYS 05:37	DFW 07:06	5%	2%	0.8%	90%
AA 5425 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TYS 07:01	DFW 08:34	8%	5%	0.8%	77%
AA 5593 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TYS 11:43	DFW 13:10	10%	5%	0.7%	79%
AA 2544 American Flight history →	TYS 14:30	DFW 15:52	14%	4%	0.7%	76%
AA 2550 American Flight history →	TYS 17:20	DFW 18:46	15%	5%	0.8%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON