tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: G7 4445 at 08:29 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
G7 4445 GoJet TYS 08:29 EWR 10:28 10% 3% 0.6% no record
G7 4592 GoJet TYS 16:15 EWR 18:17 22% 4% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 6h 41m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → TYS 17:47 → DTW 19:31DL 4697 · flown by Endeavor 2h 09m Detroit DTW 21:40 → EWR 23:25DL 2609 5h 38m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → TYS 07:02 → ATL 08:05DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312 7h 14m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → TYS 05:46 → IAD 07:26UA 4311 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 03m Dulles IAD 08:29 → EWR 09:55UA 2396 4h 09m 94% 83%
DeltaDetails → TYS 07:41 → DTW 09:24DL 5196 · flown by Endeavor 51m Detroit DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577 4h 15m 91% 81%
DeltaDetails → TYS 08:52 → ATL 09:53DL 5279 · flown by Endeavor 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 13:09 → EWR 15:24DL 2322 6h 32m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → TYS 11:57 → ATL 12:59DL 1743 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:53DL 2340 5h 56m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → TYS 08:17 → CLT 09:47AA 5641 · flown by PSA 1h 10m Charlotte CLT 10:57 → EWR 12:56AA 1697 4h 39m 95% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON