Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 4311 TYS 05:45 → IAD 07:23 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 4325 TYS 09:37 → IAD 11:16 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4311 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	TYS 05:45	IAD 07:23	5%	2%	0.8%	91%
YV 6255 Mesa	TYS 19:22	IAD 20:55	8%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 4848 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	TYS 13:30	IAD 15:11	9%	3%	0.7%	81%
UA 4325 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	TYS 09:37	IAD 11:16	12%	3%	0.7%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON