tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1681 American TYS 06:01 MIA 08:24 6% 3% 0.8% no record
AA 3079 American TYS 11:19 MIA 13:41 10% 4% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 09:31 → MIA 11:33DL 2836 5h 53m 98% 91%
AmericanDetails → TYS 05:00 → CLT 06:23AA 5954 · flown by Piedmont 2h 47m Charlotte CLT 09:10 → MIA 11:22AA 3184 6h 22m 97% 91%
UnitedDetails → TYS 05:45 → IAD 07:30UA 4311 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 15m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073 5h 50m 94% 88%
AmericanDetails → TYS 08:17 → CLT 09:47AA 5641 · flown by PSA 1h 15m Charlotte CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969 4h 54m 96% 88%
AmericanDetails → TYS 06:00 → PHL 07:56AA 5620 · flown by PSA 3h 27m Philadelphia PHL 11:23 → MIA 14:24AA 1989 8h 24m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → TYS 18:05 → ATL 19:09DL 2571 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 6h 50m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → TYS 05:37 → DFW 07:06AA 994 3h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:20 → MIA 14:29AA 1454 8h 52m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → TYS 07:35 → ATL 08:47DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 5h 27m 93% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → TYS 11:41 → DTW 13:30DL 5341 · flown by Endeavor 47m Detroit DTW 14:17 → MIA 17:18DL 2548 5h 37m 70% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON