Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1553 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 1553 TYS 06:04 → ORD 06:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5869 TYS 18:20 → ORD 19:13 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1553 United	TYS 06:04	ORD 06:56	5%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1577 United	TYS 10:37	ORD 11:35	9%	4%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4102 Envoy	TYS 11:14	ORD 12:01	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3716 Envoy	TYS 08:03	ORD 09:08	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 6344 SkyWest	TYS 21:23	ORD 22:18	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4105 Envoy	TYS 16:36	ORD 17:38	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 5869 SkyWest	TYS 18:20	ORD 19:13	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 4584 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	TYS 10:18	ORD 11:23	6%	3%	0.0%	94%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON