Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 6–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2048 VPS 11:15 → ATL 13:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 2113 VPS 06:02 → ATL 08:15 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2048 Delta Flight history →	VPS 11:15	ATL 13:35	6%	3%	1.2%	85%
DL 2451 Delta Flight history →	VPS 07:00	ATL 09:18	6%	2%	1.0%	89%
DL 2832 Delta Flight history →	VPS 14:45	ATL 17:04	8%	3%	1.2%	77%
DL 3085 Delta Flight history →	VPS 06:00	ATL 08:15	8%	3%	0.9%	89%
DL 2170 Delta	VPS 17:05	ATL 19:18	8%	3%	0.9%	no record
DL 3051 Delta Flight history →	VPS 09:21	ATL 11:34	9%	2%	0.9%	90%
DL 2113 Delta	VPS 06:02	ATL 08:15	9%	3%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON