Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 490 VPS 07:16 → BNA 08:51 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 547 VPS 16:03 → BNA 17:35 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 490 Southwest	VPS 07:16	BNA 08:51	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1890 Southwest	VPS 07:18	BNA 08:50	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3102 Southwest	VPS 11:59	BNA 13:29	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1481 Southwest	VPS 12:18	BNA 13:50	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 547 Southwest	VPS 16:03	BNA 17:35	9%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON