tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:22 am at Valparaiso)
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 14:45, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Boston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 20:50 → BOS 23:36DL 300 7h 51m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 13:58 → BOS 16:44DL 726 6h 23m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855 5h 45m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → VPS 11:15 → ATL 13:35DL 2048 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → BOS 19:30DL 518 7h 15m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:18 → MSP 17:12DL 2462 2h 57m Minneapolis MSP 20:09 → BOS 23:55DL 2614 8h 37m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862 5h 47m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:44 → CLT 10:16AA 2185 3h 30m Charlotte CLT 13:46 → BOS 15:57AA 1143 7h 13m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → VPS 12:56 → CLT 15:35AA 5165 · flown by PSA 2h 34m Charlotte CLT 18:09 → BOS 20:28AA 1155 6h 32m 96% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → VPS 15:59 → DFW 18:14AA 2501 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:06 → BOS 00:07 +1AA 1268 7h 08m 75% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON