Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:00 am at Valparaiso)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 1652 Southwest	VPS 14:13	BWI 17:52	11%	3%	0.3%	no record
WN 4219 Southwest	VPS 14:18	BWI 17:46	12%	3%	0.3%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711	6h 01m	99%	87%
American Details →	VPS 06:00 → MIA 08:46AA 4301 · flown by Envoy	1h 43m Miami	MIA 10:29 → BWI 13:19AA 1010	6h 19m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 19:42 → BWI 21:44DL 2670	5h 59m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799	5h 32m	98%	82%
American Details →	VPS 07:44 → CLT 10:16AA 2185	2h 11m Charlotte	CLT 12:27 → BWI 14:06AA 2733	5h 22m	95%	82%
American Details →	VPS 07:09 → DFW 09:23AA 2560	1h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:57 → BWI 15:00AA 2669	6h 51m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	VPS 11:15 → ATL 13:35DL 2048	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → BWI 17:15DL 1267	5h 00m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	VPS 14:18 → MSP 17:12DL 2462	48m Minneapolis	MSP 18:00 → BWI 21:30DL 2918	6h 12m	80%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON