Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 11–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2185 VPS 07:44 → CLT 10:16 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest OH 5077 VPS 17:00 → CLT 19:42 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2185 American Flight history →	VPS 07:44	CLT 10:16	11%	4%	0.7%	88%
OH 5069 PSA	VPS 13:02	CLT 15:49	13%	4%	2.1%	no record
AA 5165 American flown by PSA Flight history →	VPS 12:56	CLT 15:35	13%	4%	2.3%	89%
OH 5220 PSA	VPS 07:17	CLT 09:56	14%	4%	1.5%	no record
OH 5277 PSA	VPS 16:42	CLT 19:21	14%	4%	2.3%	no record
OH 5077 PSA	VPS 17:00	CLT 19:42	15%	5%	2.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON