Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:23 am at Valparaiso)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Hebron on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → CVG 12:28DL 3149	4h 28m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160	4h 25m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → CVG 15:11DL 3169	4h 50m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	VPS 14:18 → MSP 17:12DL 2462	3h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → CVG 23:11DL 1469	7h 53m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	VPS 11:15 → ATL 13:35DL 2048	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 15:57 → CVG 17:28DL 1008	5h 13m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 19:41 → CVG 21:12DL 2248	5h 27m	98%	86%
American Details →	VPS 07:44 → CLT 10:16AA 2185	1h 20m Charlotte	CLT 11:36 → CVG 12:56AA 1533	4h 12m	93%	77%
American Details →	VPS 07:09 → DFW 09:23AA 2560	1h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:05 → CVG 14:24AA 3305	6h 15m	95%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON