tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
MQ 3832 Envoy VPS 12:22 DCA 15:44 16% 3% 1.8% no record
MQ 4110 Envoy VPS 12:52 DCA 16:22 16% 3% 1.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451 1h 54m Atlanta ATL 11:12 → DCA 12:58DL 1961 4h 58m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → VPS 11:15 → ATL 13:35DL 2048 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950 6h 22m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 20:55 → DCA 22:48DL 378 7h 03m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085 1h 25m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 4h 27m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360 4h 35m 96% 81%
AmericanDetails → VPS 06:00 → MIA 08:46AA 4301 · flown by Envoy 1h 17m Miami MIA 10:03 → DCA 12:49AA 1612 5h 49m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:18 → MSP 17:12DL 2462 1h 23m Minneapolis MSP 18:35 → DCA 22:02DL 2962 6h 44m 96% 79%
AmericanDetails → VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49AA 2560 1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:25 → DCA 14:23AA 1550 6h 53m 93% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON