Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2560 VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 2501 VPS 15:33 → DFW 17:50 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2560 American Flight history →	VPS 06:30	DFW 08:49	9%	6%	1.3%	87%
AA 3089 American	VPS 12:33	DFW 14:49	15%	5%	1.6%	no record
AA 2460 American Flight history →	VPS 12:18	DFW 14:35	15%	5%	1.6%	68%
AA 2501 American Flight history →	VPS 15:33	DFW 17:50	18%	6%	1.6%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON