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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 09:21, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575 6h 08m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380 6h 20m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:18 → MSP 17:12DL 2462 2h 51m Minneapolis MSP 20:03 → JFK 23:37DL 2692 8h 19m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 19:46 → JFK 21:52DL 1860 6h 07m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → VPS 06:00 → MIA 08:46AA 4301 · flown by Envoy 2h 10m Miami MIA 10:56 → JFK 13:59AA 2062 6h 59m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:44 → CLT 10:16AA 2185 1h 14m Charlotte CLT 11:30 → JFK 13:24AA 374 4h 40m 92% 78%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:09 → DFW 09:23AA 2560 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:24 → JFK 14:47AA 481 6h 38m 91% 75%
AmericanDetails → VPS 12:18 → DFW 14:35AA 2460 3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:40 → JFK 22:09AA 1248 8h 51m 97% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON