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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 14:18, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:18 → MSP 17:12DL 2462 2h 46m Minneapolis MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733 8h 22m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525 6h 50m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 11:30 → LGA 13:42DL 467 6h 42m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → LGA 15:50DL 460 5h 29m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → VPS 11:15 → ATL 13:35DL 2048 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 15:30 → LGA 17:49DL 433 5h 34m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 20:30 → LGA 22:37DL 490 6h 52m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:44 → CLT 10:16AA 2185 1h 30m Charlotte CLT 11:46 → LGA 13:49AA 2796 5h 05m 93% 79%
AmericanDetails → VPS 06:00 → MIA 08:46AA 4301 · flown by Envoy 1h 29m Miami MIA 10:15 → LGA 13:13AA 2424 6h 13m 97% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → VPS 15:59 → DFW 18:15AA 2501 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:03 → LGA 23:30AA 1375 6h 31m 71% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON